Or to put it another way: And every day the groundhog greets the groundhog.
The last notary appointments of 2025 took place today. For me, this is always a good time to pause for a moment and call a spade a spade. Not from a theoretical perspective, but from a practical one. With over 100 notary appointments and numerous lettings in Berlin and Brandenburg, we at Black Label Immobilien have gained enough market experience this year to realistically categorise the market.
The media often talked about rising property prices in 2025. Formally, this is even true. In terms of content, however, it is misleading. Because the crucial question is not: Are prices rising?
But rather: For whom is property still affordable?
To answer this clearly, I deliberately divide the market into two realities: buying and renting.
The buying market: maths instead of headlines
Anyone looking for a contemporary, energy-efficient, modern new-build flat for two people in Berlin today - around 70 square metres in a good location - will quickly end up with a purchase price of around 550,000 euros. This is what buyers need, including ancillary purchase costs:
- approx. 140,000 € Equity capital
- approx. € 7,000 net household income per month
After Figures from the IW (Institute of the German Economy) can only afford this 7 % of Berlin households afford. In practice, this usually means two full-time incomes, no children and a solid education. As soon as children are added and one income is lost, at least temporarily, even a three-room flat quickly becomes unsustainable.
The consequence is well-known: out of the city, into the Bacon belt or the countryside. More living space, but less time. Commuting instead of neighbourhood life.
So have prices gone up?
A look at the real figures shows a different picture:
In 2021/22, good new-build prices were around EUR 9,500 per square metre - with interest rates of 1.5 per cent.
Today, we are talking about around 8,000 euros per square metre - with interest rates of around four per cent. That is a price drop of around 15 per cent compared to the high. Nevertheless, we are selling more slowly than before. Not because there is no demand, but because the few households with purchasing power now have a choice - and no time pressure.
When people talk about rising prices today, they are referring to slight recoveries after a significant slump. Anyone looking to sell should take this into account: first accept the discount compared to 2021/22 and then - depending on the location and property - realistically price in the moderate increases from 2025.
One point is often underestimated: even the recent rise in interest rates from around 3.3 to 3.8 per cent has triggered noticeably fewer enquiries. If we go sustainably above 4 %, we do not expect prices to rise - but at most stable or even falling purchase prices. Despite the high demand for residential property. Why? Because the affordability is simply not there.
My clear appeal to sellers is therefore: Work out who can afford your property - and what alternatives there are on the market. Estate agent phrases and headlines are no substitute for maths. Hoping for the one emotional buyer is not a business model.
Outlook for the purchasing market 2026:
I expect stable prices, a medium transaction volume, a further trend towards smaller flats and a continued migration of families to the surrounding area. Infrastructure and recreational value will become even more important.
We support you.
Discuss your questions about buying or selling your property personally, without obligation and free of charge with one of our estate agents.
The rental market: Rents between protection and market mechanics
Yes, rents are rising.
And no, not in spite of regulation, but because of it.
A distinction must also be made here. Existing tenancies are in fact a protected system. Hardly any vacancies, hardly any relocations. Flats are often no longer suitable for the current phase of life, but are held due to a lack of alternatives. Moves usually only occur for health or professional reasons - or when people leave Berlin altogether. These flats are then often sold empty or used by the tenants themselves, but hardly ever rented out again.
After more than 10 years of tough state rent regulation Berlin Rent Act - further tightening is also expected in 2026:
- Penalties for renting above the regulated rent
- de facto expropriations through further curtailment of private property
The regulated rent is around 50 % of the market rent. However, a functioning market needs two satisfied parties: a tenant and a landlord.
In fact, new tenancies are almost only created in new builds. And there everything is regulated by the price. If you want to live in a central, modern and energy-efficient property today, you have to be prepared to pay at least 18 €/m² cold calculate. Below this, it is usually no longer possible to cover the debt service and running costs. Alternative investments are more attractive for many owners - and less regulated.
I don't expect big price jumps here, but I do expect annual increases in the range of three to five per cent, limited by declining purchasing power.
What does this mean in concrete terms for people looking for accommodation?
Whoever wants a Buy a flat should seriously consider it. Prices have fallen since 2021, many sellers have to sell. Clean invoices, serious advice and - if possible - family support are crucial.
If you can't buy yet, you should Equity capital build up and living models. Unfortunately, for families, the inner-city rental market is unrealistic for the vast majority, with exceptions proving the rule. Co-operatives or state providers are often only accessible with a great deal of patience or luck.
New arrivals in Berlin can Micro-apartments be a starting point. Save money, develop prospects, talk to employers. And if none of this works, the only option is honesty: choose a city with a functioning rental market or commute.
Conclusion
I reckon not that it will be easier for people looking for accommodation in 2026. But there is also good news at the end: Berlin is - despite everything - still cheaper than almost all other European metropolises. Both when buying and renting.
And because knowledge is becoming increasingly important in this market, in 2026 we will be offering Seminars for first-time buyers - also in presence.
Because in the end, it's more about calculating, understanding and deciding. Not hope.
